Fact or Crap

“Whoever smelt it, dealt it.”
That was the response you received in grade school if you were the first one to notice a nasty odor lingering in the room.
I was recently reminded of that while thinking about the 2007 MLB Season that recently got underway. Early trends are already starting to develop, but it’s tough to know which ones will last and which ones will fizzle out.
Like in the 4th grade, I think I’m starting to smell something foul. Only this time I’m pretty sure it’s not coming from Evan Tattlebaum in the seat behind me; I’m almost certain it’s coming from Major League Baseball. So in an effort to separate truth from poop, I present to you the 2007 version of Major League Baseball FACT or CRAP.
FACT or CRAP? 2007 will be the best year of baseball ever.
FACT. Optimism is extremely underrated.
FACT or CRAP? Steroids and Performance Enhancing Drugs are ruining the game of baseball.
CRAP. Performance enhancing drugs exist in every sport, so it’s certainly not a problem that is unique to baseball. Folks tend to care more about baseball players using these types of drugs because they care more about baseball’s records than they do any other sport. So if you’re asking me if steroids and HGH are ruining the “records” of baseball, I might have to agree. But ruining the game? I don’t think so.
FACT OR CRAP? There’s nothing funnier than seeing a pitcher trying to hit.
CRAP. One word: Alf.
FACT or CRAP? There will be a bigger brawl in baseball this year than the Nuggets-Knicks fight that got Carmelo Anthony suspended for 15 games and no player will be suspended more than 10 games for it.
FACT. There will probably be 2 or 3 of them, actually. And not only will you not be bothered at all by the fact that they happened, you will probably enjoy them. Carmelo Anthony got a bum deal with that ridiculous 15-game suspension for throwing one lousy punch, but that’s another story for another time. As far as the fights go, I’m hoping the Yankees and Red Sox go at it again this year. The image of Pedro Martinez throwing Don Zimmer to the ground still makes me chuckle. This year I’m hoping to see Dice-K put Yankees bench coach Larry Bowa into the Boston Crab.
FACT or CRAP? Your MVPs this year will be a pair of New York Shortstops.
FACT. Derek Jeter is going to have a monster second half to lead the Yankees to another Division title, prompting voters to give him the MVP Award that they feel that he is due. Meanwhile over in Queens, Jose Reyes is going to hit 25 doubles, 25 triples, 25 homers, steal well over 25 bases, and the Mets will clinch the N.L. East by mid-September.
FACT or CRAP? Barry Bonds will break Hank Aaron’s career home run record sometime this summer.
CRAP. I mean, I think it’s a fact that he will do it, but I just think the whole thing is crap.
FACT or CRAP? Both Wild Cards will come out of the Eastern Divisions this year.
CRAP. I think one will, but not both. I’ll expand on that in a minute.
FACT or CRAP? Daisuke Matsuzaka will throw a gyroball sometime this season.
CRAP. He’ll probably throw 7 or 8 different pitches throughout the season, but the gyro won’t be one of them. Does it exist? Probably. I’m sure someone, somewhere, at some point has thrown one in a game. But Daisuke seems to be doing alright with the other 7 pitches he has. I think it’s actually more effective to never throw it, but to always have hitters wondering if you will.
FACT or CRAP? The Diamondbacks really did change their name to the D-Bags?
CRAP. That says D-Backs on their uniforms, not D-Bags. Easy to see how you’d be confused though.
FACT or CRAP? Vlad Guerrero and Nick Swisher will be golfing together the day after the regular season ends.
CRAP. I’m not even sure if either of them golf, but one thing I’m sure of, neither will be playing in the playoffs this year. That honor will go to the eventual A.L. West Champion Seattle Mariners. Their lineup, if it decides to live up to its potential, has the ability to outscore a lot of teams this year. Felix Hernandez, finally living up to his potential, will lead the team to the division crown and pick up his first Cy Young Award on the way. (By the way, can you imagine Vlad Guerrero’s golf swing? He can probably hit a pitching wedge 250 yards into a gale force headwind.)
FACT or CRAP? Next year’s opening day lineup for the Yankees will feature Ichiro in the leadoff spot and no A-Rod.
FACT. As a Red Sox fan it makes me cringes to type this, but I think Ichiro will be playing Right Field for the Yankees next year. You just have a feeling that he’d thrive playing on that big stage 81 games a year. Honestly, I’ve never wanted to be more wrong. A-Rod, meanwhile, despite the white-hot start to his 2007 campaign, will move on at the end of the year. My guess is that he moves to a team on the West Coast like the Angels or Dodgers. April statistics look really shiny in April, but come October they’re about as useful as an encyclopedia Britannica set. It will be the best thing for Alex and for the Yankees, and it will free the Yankees up to land Ichiro and another stud pitcher in the off-season.
FACT or CRAP? The Mets will score more runs this year than any other team in baseball.
FACT. Jose Reyes is a beast. Beltran and Delgado can rake with anyone. Wright and LoDuca thrive in the clutch. Have I not yet mentioned that Shawn Green and Moises Alou are their number 6 and 7 hitters? This team was built to score 8 runs a game, and they just might do that.
FACT or CRAP? The Cardinals and Tigers will both make it back to the World Series this year.
CRAP. The Cardinals are going to struggle to make the playoffs this year, and will probably end up losing the division to the Cubs or Reds. The Tigers will make the playoffs, either as the Division winner in the A.L. Central or as the Wild Card, and I believe that they will make it back to the World Series. Their pitching staff is solid from top to bottom. Adding Gary Sheffield to that lineup won’t hurt either.
FACT or CRAP? The Royals, Devil Rays, and Marlins will combine to win more games than the Phillies, Orioles, and Astros this year.
FACT. I’ve got a hunch on this one. Check the math at the end of the year and send me my due praise.
FACT or CRAP? Jason Giambi has been using a corked bat all year.
CRAP. He only uses one in Home games.
FACT or CRAP? The Red Sox, White Sox, Twins, Angels, Phillies, and Cardinals will all miss the playoffs this year.
FACT: Only 8 teams can make it through to October and these teams all have enough flaws that they’ll wind up on the outside looking in.
FACT or CRAP? The Cy Young Winners in both leagues will be from Venezuela.
FACT: As I mentioned earlier, Felix Hernandez is going to put together a great season this year to lead the Mariners to the A.L. West crown. He was virtually unhittable in his first two starts, and I see that trend continuing all year long. In the N.L., I think Venezuelan Carlos Zambrano will be the difference in the Cubs winning the N.L. Central and will finally get the recognition he is due as one of the game’s elite pitchers. Look for him to be the sole 20-game winner in the Senior Circuit this year.
FACT or CRAP? Color Commentators Joe Morgan and Tim McCarver will restate the obvious approximately five hundred times this season during their telecasts.
CRAP. That number is way too low. I’m saying they’ll hit a thousand by the trade deadline. Oh, this just in! Tim McCarver would also like to add that “one thousand is more than five hundred.” Thanks Tim!
FACT or CRAP? The Yankees and Tigers will meet in the ALCS after beating the Mariners and Indians in their respective ALDS match-ups.
FACT: The Indians will win the A.L. Wild Card, but won’t have enough pitching to get by Detroit. The Yankees will slug their way past the Mariners unless Seattle finds a way for Felix Hernandez to pitch every other game. In a rematch of last year’s ALCS, I think the Tigers will ride their deep pitching staff to the World Series and Gary Sheffield will get his sweet revenge against the men in pinstripes.
FACT or CRAP? Right at this very moment that you are reading this, Lou Piniella is angry.
FACT. He is ticked off.
FACT or CRAP? It will be an all N.L. East NLCS this year.
FACT: I’m betting the Braves will earn the Wild Card this year and return to the playoffs, where their fans still won’t show up. I like the Braves to beat the Cubs in the Division Series and the Mets to easily dispose of the Padres in the other NLDS match up. In the NLCS it will be the Mets bats who prove to be too much for the revamped Braves bullpen to advance to the World Series.
FACT or CRAP? I will be awake for the ninth inning of at least 1 World Series Game.
CRAP. What am I, an owl? Does the MLB really expect me to stay up past midnight to watch two teams I don’t really follow? I love baseball, but not enough to ruin my sleep schedule. Especially not when I can TiVo the game in case I miss something amazing; that way I can just go back and watch it the next day and pretend that I don’t know what’s about to happen. (It’s more fun if you pretend.)
FACT or CRAP? The biggest story of the second half of the year will be where Roger Clemens decides to pitch.
CRAP. Am I the only one out there who doesn’t care about Roger Clemens at all? Every time a talking head starts speculating on which rotation he’s going to land in, I find myself yawning and changing the channel. The only thing I find more boring than a story on Roger Clemens is a story on Barry Bonds and steroids. Here’s an idea: let’s put both of them in a ballpark and let Roger pitch to Barry 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Roger can strike Barry out, Barry can hit some Home Runs, and we can all move on with life.
FACT or CRAP? In the cold of October, the Detroit Tigers pitching staff will quiet the Mets’ lineup just enough to earn them their first World Series Championship since 1984.
CRAP. Not a chance. While it could be argued that the Yankees lineup has more juice than the Mets, I get the feeling that the Mets are a team of destiny this year. From top to bottom the Mets are stacked not only with strong bats, but they also have great base runners, clutch hitters, guys who can bunt, switch hitters in the 1 and 3 spots in their lineup, and the type of swagger that you need to win in October. And don’t forget that Pedro Martinez will probably rejoin the Mets pitching staff in September and will be fresh and ready to go when the playoffs roll around. Mark it down, you heard it here first (or fiftieth): the Mets will win the World Series.

FACT or CRAP? Do you know what I just stepped in?
CRAP. Literally. Please pick up after your dogs, people!